MagePrediction markets
Bet on real-world events by text, settled on Polymarket.
A prediction market turns a question about the world into a price. "Will the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?" trades at a number of cents. You buy the side you believe. Each share pays $1 if your side is right, and $0 if it is wrong. The price is the crowd's odds, and you can read it the way you read a quote.
On Mage, a bet is one more thing you text. You name the event, the side, and the amount. Mage finds the market on Polymarket, shows the price and the shares your money buys, and asks you to confirm. You reply "yes", the same as every other trade.
Place a bet
Will the Chiefs win the Super Bowl?
pUSD left: 45.00
The ask names the market in full. That line is the money boundary: read the question, the side, and the amount before you reply. A "no" cancels it, the same as any card.
You can bet either side. Say "no" as the outcome and Mage buys the "No" shares instead:
How a bet is priced
The quote shows the price of your side in cents and an estimate of the shares your dollars buy. Prices move with the crowd. If the market moves before your order fills, nothing is spent:
Ask again and Mage quotes the fresh price. If Mage cannot find a tradeable market for your words, it says so — try a more specific phrasing.
Your prediction balance
Bets settle in pUSD, your Polymarket balance. It is separate from your wallet, the same way your perps account is separate from your wallet.
Prediction markets are rolling out now. If your prediction balance is not set up yet, Mage tells you and nothing is placed:
Nothing leaves your wallet. Your bet waits until your balance is ready.
The rules that hold
Every bet stops at the ask. Nothing is placed until you reply "yes". The card lasts about 5 minutes, a tapback is not a yes, and the cancel words work the same as everywhere else. See Confirm and cancel.